A study by Deloitte for this year reflects more positive than the last three years, with up to twenty Spanish regions in a favorable position consolidation context.
Real Estate area of Deloitte has conducted for the fourth year, an analysis of the residential market in Spain, which states, among its conclusions, three phases of recovery in housing activity.
The report for this year reflects more positive than the last three years, with up to twenty Spanish provinces already well positioned to deal with the recovery in housing activity, considering both its macroeconomic environment (demographics, unemployment, population growth context , etc.) and real estate fundamentals (price of housing, work rate, stock, etc.).
These provinces are Alava, Asturias, Baleares, Barcelona, Burgos, Cantabria, Guipúzcoa, Guadalajara, Huesca, La Coruna, Lleida, Madrid, Navarre, Palencia, Segovia, Soria, Teruel, Valencia, Valladolid and Vizcaya.
The downward trend seems to have bottomed out and signs of further increases seen in housing prices. Although the properties continue to depreciate in the middle of the country, falls are much softer than a year ago. Prices have fallen by 3.2% between January and August this year, when in the same period last year (January-August 2013) there had been an adjustment of 8.1%. However, according to Tinsa appraisers, the price of housing by 4.3% year fell so in August. But also they highlight the process of slowing price adjustment began in 2013.
Work rate of households
The average effort rate of Spanish households (percentage of family income devoted to mortgage payments) has declined steadily in recent years to stand at 33%, a level close to reasonable levels of balance. This decrease is due to the cumulative decline of housing prices since the beginning of the crisis.
Similarly, the average price of housing in Spain (regardless of the variable “funding” to establish a comparative analysis with the EU) is already 4.4 times the individual gross salary, compared to 6 ratio, 1 average in the European Union (with countries like Britain and France with ratios respectively 8.5 and 7.9 times the individual gross salary.
In provincial analysis, Barcelona and Guipúzcoa have, for the fourth year, with rates higher effort Spain, due to the high price of housing in these provinces. In Cadiz, meanwhile, the difficulty in accessing housing is motivated by macroeconomic conditions.
On the opposite side, the purchase of housing in the provinces of La Rioja, Lleida, Murcia and Pontevedra is more accessible, with work rates below the 30% threshold.
“Stock” of new housing
Much of the new construction homes unsold in Spain are located in Madrid, Barcelona and the major provinces of the Spanish Levante, because the latter to double market condition first and second residence.
Of the 50 provinces analyzed, Barcelona, Alicante, Madrid and Castellon are the provinces that have more stock available. Caceres, Badajoz and Cantabria, by contrast, are the provinces with the lowest housing stock.